The Sports “Levels of Shock”

I actually originally wrote this as an email to sports writer Bill Simmons, but I decided to also post it up on here. I’ll just post the unedited (read: formatted as an email, not a blog post) version, as it makes more sense than if I attempt to format it for this site.

 

“I’m a big fan of your writing, but maybe my favorite thing of yours is your theories. I’ve got one; it’s similar to “Levels of Losing”, called “Levels of Shock”. Let me explain. It measures just how shocking a sports moment (almost always a turning point in a game) was from a fan standpoint. It is on a 10 point scale, and measures as follows:

1) You totally saw it coming. Not only that, you generally just don’t really even care. On the same level as “Aw, Ronnie and Sammi broke up again? I really thought they had it together this time!”.

2) Still saw it coming. Only difference from 1 is degree of game-change. Think Kobe’s game-winning in the 06 Playoffs against Phoenix (yeah I know, a Kobe reference in the third paragraph pretty much guarantees this won’t get published). It may have been a huge shot, possibly even qualified for one of the Levels of Losing”, but it wasn’t really shocking. A disgruntled Kobe, in one of his moments of absolute focus, making a game-winner? More predictable than an episode of “Keeping Up With the Kardashians”, only with less Lamar Odom.

3. The outcome is predictable, the way it happens, not so much. I don’t think many people were surprised when LeBron left Cleveland. It was the easy call. But the way he went about it? Shocking. Reminds me a little of how Shannon in LOST dies (does the LOST reference make up for the Kobe one? Stay tuned, more LOST coming). No one was really shocked that she was killed off; not as hot as Kate, not as sweet as Sun, no MILF potential like Claire. She had to go. But shot by Ana Lucia? What? Just a little weird.

4. Initially surprising, but then you think about it. The Favre interception in the NFC Championship game is a perfect example. While that is as damn near a 10.0 on the losing scale as can be, it’s only about a 4 on the Shock Scale. Why? How about because Favre was playing on borrowed time all season. How about because after the 12 men on the field penalty, there was no way the Vikes were gonna pull it off. How about simply because the Vikings are clearly never destined to win anything? Anytime you can think of three solid (and those are all solid) reasons explaining it, it receives a 4. Shocking at first, then you ponder it for a moment, and finally end up at the conclusion of “yeah, makes sense”.

5. I actually like number 5 as a nice middle ground between predictability and surprise, and for that reason, it is a little different from the rest. This is for sustained surprise, such as the Giants recent playoff run ending in a World Series victory. Other examples include the ’10 Celtics, any March Madness Cinderella team, and pretty much all productive white NBA players. This is the long-term story that you write off at first, then slowly start to accept as “oh, this really is happening. Interesting”. It can also work the other way around, with disappointments. Included under disappointments are all Yankee teams 2000-present that don’t win the World Series, the Celtics-Cavs playoff series from June (from a LeBron fan standpoint), and every 50 Cent album since Get Rich Or Die Tryin’.

6. Now we’re starting to get to some real surprises. Number 6 is reserved for those events where honestly, you didn’t see it coming, but if someone asks, you sure as hell predicted it. Perfect example: the 03-04 Lakers blowup. A team with 4 future Hall of Famers, including Shaq and Kobe, two of the best 10 ever at their respective positions. Add the greatest coach of all time, and there is absolutely no doubt that they should win the championship. Right? But they didn’t. And while hindsight is 20-20, and it’s easy to see that something just wasn’t right, no one can say they honestly weren’t a little surprised by the final outcome of that season.

7. Very surprsing, shocking even, but the magnitude of the play is less than an 8, 9, or 10. LeBron’s shot against Orlando in the 09 playoffs fits well here, as does the Steve Bartman incident, and Favre’s final play against the 49ers in 09.

8. Sustained surprise, like number 5, but at a much bigger magnitude. Not a single moment, but an event that you watch and just think “No way. This is not happening”. The 04 Red Sox-Yankees ALCS is a perfect example. Another is the the Golden State Warriors-Dallas Mavs 07 playoff upset (to this day the only instance of a #8 beating a #1 in a seven game format).

9. The “what the eff??” moment. Not quite a life-changer, but getting there. Helps if there is a little weirdness involved. These are a like an M. Night Shyamalan movie (by that I mean only The Sixth Sense, not the terrible ones); not only do they leave you a little stunned, you are legitimately unsure of what just happened. The Artest brawl at the Palace goes here. So does Tyson bitting Holyfield’s ear off, and Pedro taking down Don Zimmer. Come to think of it, 90% of these come in some kind of brawl/extracurricular activity.

10. The life-changer. Very few moments can qualify for the perfect 10. The Helmet Catch. Horry’s shot against Sacramento in the 02 Western Conference Finals. Buckner. When the nuke goes off to end LOST Season 5. No further explanation should be needed.”

We’re Back

Well, after a long hiatus, The American Pastime is back at it. Unfortunately we’ve missed a lot of opportunities to ridicule some key sports happenings over the past few months. A quick look back at the bigger events we missed.

The Superbowl. March Madness. All of baseball season. The NBA Finals. The Favre saga (for now). The LeBron saga (for now). Many, many others. Not much to say here, but look for some new stuff coming soon.